Democratic Resilience in the Twenty-First Century. Search for an analytical framework and explorative analysis
活動名稱:Democratic Resilience in the Twenty-First Century. Search for an analytical framework and explorative analysis
主辦單位: 國立臺灣大學胡佛東亞民主研究中心
報名方式: https://forms.gle/m5pnT4VL29WzEcD48
活動日期: 2024年10月1日(二) 14:00-15:30
活動地點: 台大社科院108室
主講人: Aurel Croissant (德國海德堡大學政治系教授)
演講大綱:
This study presents a conceptualization of democratic resilience as regime performance and regime capacity. It introduced the Resilience Capacity (ResCap)-Index and combines different approaches of measuring autocratization to capture varieties of resilience performance in democracies. The usefulness of this concept and measurement of democratic resilience for empirical research is demonstrated through an explorative study of up to 117 countries since 2000. The preliminary evidence from our explorative analysis suggests that resilience capacity has a significant and substantial effect on a country’s predicted probability to prevent democratic erosion or breakdown, but not the ability of the political system to recover from such democratic erosion or breakdown. This supports the view that it is necessary to differentiate between different forms of democratic resilience which, though temporarily connected, depend on different forms or combinations of resilience capacities.
講者簡介:
Dr. Aurel Croissant is Professor of Political Science at Heidelberg University, Germany. His research interests include comparative democratization, authoritarianism, civil–military relations, and Asian politics. He is editor-in-chief of the journal Democratization. His most recent publications include Dictators’ Endgames (Oxford University Press, 2024), and Routes to Reform: Civil-Military Relations and Democracy in the Third Wave (Oxford University Press, 2023). His work has been published in journals such as Electoral Studies, Democratization, Party Politics, European Political Science Review, and Journal of Democracy, among others.